Is Wealth Redistribution the Best Way to Get Excellent Health Care?

Dr. Berwick, the new interim apppointment to head the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), is in the news a lot lately over his remark about “… any health-care funding plan that is just, equitable, civilized and humane must – must – redistribute wealth from the richer among us to the poorer and less fortunate.”  Is wealth redistribution the best way to get excellent health care?  Is forced socialized medicine for all Americans the way to help some Americans who need help with paying for health care?  And … if Medicare is teetering on bankruptcy now with an unfunded liability of $38 Trillion, how can we expect the government to fund a complete takeover of the health care industry?  Let’s talk about it now.

Here’s the bottom line.  Is wealth redistribution the best way to get excellent health care?  The answer is an emphatic NO!   Here are a few reasons why the answer is NO!

1.  Big government has a bad track record of running Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security.  There is no reason to believe ObamaCare will be run any better.  We can expect higher costs for premiums and lower quality health care.  Look at the Massachusett’s universal health care program to see how costs have skyrocketed.

2.  Shortages and rationing are inevitable.  Look to Britain and Canada to see how poorly rationing works.  Look at all the examples of people denied the tests, treatments, and drugs that are vital to save lives.

3.  Redistribution of wealth means burdenly tax-paying Americans with more taxes.  Taxes are already too high and are killing jobs now.  More taxes mean more job losses.  Expect unemployment to increase dramatically as the Bush tax cuts expire in 2011 and many, new taxes kick in.

4.  Redistribution of wealth also means economic growth will be curtailed.  The whole economy will be hurt.  Within the health care industry expect fewer innovations in drugs, medical devices, tests, and treatments.

5.  ObamaCare is not needed.  The problems with our pre-ObamaCare, health care system centered largely around an intricate and complex set of regulations, subsidies, and tax policies that hurt the system.  About 50% of all health care expenditures were controlled by government and much of the rest was indirectly controlled by government.  Government was the problem with our health care industry.  More government control will only exacerbate the problems.

The list goes on.

Remember, it might take some time in some countries.  But, socialism always leads to moral and economic bankruptcy.

Citizen Economics Blog – News, Analysis, Insight, Practical Knowledge by Gerard Francis Lameiro, Ph.D.

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Posted in America's Future, Economic Growth, Health Care System, Jobs, Socialism | Comments closed

Note to Readers – A Change in the Blog Posting Schedule and More

Due to my work schedule, I need to change how often I do blog postings.  Instead of twice-a-week postings on Monday evening and Thursday evening, I plan to do just Monday evening blog postings, at least for now.

For those readers who have sent me positive comments, please know that they are greatly appreciated.

By the way, my new book is scheduled to come out in September.  I’m planning to do a National Radio Tour as part of the book launch.  I’m looking forward to working with Sandy Frazier (an outstanding publicist) and talking with my friends in the media.  They are all wonderful people!

I wish all my readers (both book and blog readers) and media friends ( TV and Talk Radio hosts, producers, and staff) a great summer!

My next blog posting on an important economics-related topic in the news should appear on Monday evening, July 12th.  There is a lot to write about.  That’s for sure.

Citizen Economics Blog – News, Analysis, Insight, Practical Knowledge by Gerard Francis Lameiro, Ph.D.  

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Low Interest Rates – Who Wins? Who Loses?

In The Wall Street Journal this week, an op-ed piece deals with the Federal Reserve’s policy of near-zero interest rates, presumably to help our very anemic and faltering economic recovery.  Are we really in an economic recovery?  Or, are we on the edge of a double-dip recession?  Or worse yet, are we entering a depression as some seem to worry?  With interest rates near zero, who wins and who loses?  Let’s talk about it now.

According to the article, the Federal Reserve policy is primarily helping big government finance its huge deficits and helping big banks pad their balance sheets.  With interest rates this low, big government can borrow at low rates.  Similarly, big banks can profit from the spread between their borrowing costs and their lending revenues.  So, near-zero interest rates favor big government and big banks.

If the “bigs” are winners, who are the losers?  Unfortunately, main street savers and investors.  People living on savings and investments such as retired people can’t make much money on their savings and investments.  In some cases, the managers of pension funds are taking larger than normal risks with their investments, hoping to make up for the ground lost with near-zero interest investments.  Also, States that depend on taxing wealthy individuals are running into budgetary problems because the wealthy can’t earn as much – and hence, don’t pay as much taxes.  Some States appear to be teetering on bankruptcy.

Near-zero interest rates favor big government and big banks.  Too bad main street savers and investors are not treated as well.

It still appears that a double-dip recession is likely at a minimum.  Some asset deflation also appears to be a reasonable expectation.  As to the possibility of a depression, I think it is too early to tell.  If fiscal (spending and tax) policies and monetary (money supply and interest rate) policies move from Keynesian to pro-growth, I think we can see a rapid recovery.  However, I currently have not seen indications of such policy changes.

Citizen Economics Blog – News, Analysis, Insight, Practical Knowledge by Gerard Francis Lameiro, Ph.D.

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Posted in Depression, Double-Dip Recession, Economy, Financial Sector Regulation, Interest Rates | Comments closed

Vagueness Impedes Economic Growth – Why?

Writing in The Wall Street Journal this week, Daniel Henninger suggests a “void-for-vagueness doctrine” for Congress.  What does he mean by “vagueness?”  And, why is this suggestion so very important for economic growth?  Let’s talk about it now.

The impetus for The Wall Street Journal column was the recent Supreme Court decision that found that the “honest services fraud” law was too vague, thereby helping former Enron CEO Jeff Skilling gain a partial victory in his attempt to overturn his conviction.

Indeed, vagueness in a law is an issue.  Justice George Sutherland in 1926 even went so far as to say that a vague law “… violates the first essential of due process of law.”  The point is simple: if people can’t understand a law because it is too vague, then how can the government hold people accountable to it.  It’s a matter of justice and fairness.

In addition, vagueness is vitally important today.  Congress continues to pass large and unwieldy laws that most Americans don’t have the time or energy to read.  Even our Senators and Representatives often skip reading the laws that they are voting on.  Two examples are the health care bill and the financial reform bill.  Because parts of the bills lack specificity, we might all have to wait months or even years to see what they really mean and how they will impact America.

Economic growth is predicated on investment in new businesses, new products and services, and new jobs.  But, vagueness - in current legislation passed (such as health care) and in potential new legislation (such as financial reform, cap-and-trade, and VAT taxes) – means uncertainty.  Investors can be very reluctant to invest in a climate of vagueness and uncertainty.

Vagueness impedes economic growth.  Investors and economic growth both require a climate of reasonable rules and regulations, enforced under the rule of law, and low to moderate investment taxes.

Citizen Economics Blog – News, Analysis, Insight, Practical Knowledge by Gerard Francis Lameiro, Ph.D.

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Posted in America's Future, Economic Growth, Economy, Financial Sector Regulation, Health Care System, Rule of Law | Comments closed

Are We Entering a Depression?

Economist Paul Krugman in an op-ed column in The New York Times online edition indicates that he is fearful that we are now in the early stages of a depression, possibly the third depression in our history.  Krugman also appears to believe that the cause will be government policy mistakes.  Specifically, he sees the need for additional stimulus spending to spur growth.  Is Krugman right?  Are we entering a major depression?  And, if we are, is the remedy for the Federal government to spend a lot more money?  What do you think?  Let’s talk about it now.

Yikes, a major depression.  Actually, I have been thinking the same thing for quite some time.  I think there exists a real chance we are in the beginning stage of another major depression, in many ways like the Great Depression and in some ways quite different.  Obviously, we are not close to a depression yet.  But, I think Krugman might still be right.  However, Krugman’s remedy of spending more is the WRONG answer.

Our economic recovery is currently very anemic.  But, I strongly believe the economy will be hit even harder in 2011 with an assortment of tax hikes and totally new taxes.  MORE taxes simply mean LESS money in the private sector to invest in new businesses, new products and services, and new jobs.  These new taxes and higher taxes will take their toll on unemployment numbers.

The current government policy we seem to be following is to increase taxes, increase spending, increase borrowing, and increase deficits.  There have been some notable exceptions.  But, in general, the government has a tax-and-spend mindset.  This is the precise opposite of a pro-economic growth policy which we desperately need now.

It is widely agreed that the various previous stimulus packages have failed to boost our economy.  Krugman’s policy answer will likely fail as well.  If our own economic history and data are not enough, just look at Japan’s record of attempting to stimulate their economy.  Keynesian economics didn’t work in Japan either.

Yes, we might be entering a depression.  If we do find ourselves in a depression, we can blame government policies.  But, the cause will not be too little stimulus spending.  It will be the lack of a pro-economic growth policy that emphasizes tax cuts for everyone.  Recall the Harding-Coolidge, post World War II, JFK, Ronald Reagan and Bush tax cuts.  In each case, unemployment was low and the economy soared.

Citizen Economics Blog – News, Analysis, Insight, Practical Knowledge by Gerard Francis Lameiro, Ph.D.  For more information, please visit: http://GerardLameiro.com .

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Posted in America's Future, Depression, Economy, Jobs, Taxes | Comments closed

Sustainable Capitalism vs American Capitalism – What’s the Difference?

An op-ed piece in The Wall Street Journal this week talks about ”sustainable capitalism” and long term value creation.  It appears that the authors believe by integrating environmental, social and governance factors into business strategy, metrics, and assessments of risks/opportunities, long term value creation can be achieved, possibly maximized.  It also appears that the authors think considering such factors can also influence business incentives and public policy formulation.  So, what’s the difference between so-called “sustainable capitalism” and good old, American Capitalism that has produced the greatest, most productive, most generous nation in the history of the world?  Plus, what really sustains capitalism?  Hint – It’s not high taxes and complex government regulations.  Let’s talk about it now.

Sustainable capitalism appears to me to be a pleasant-sounding marketing brand name for a highly regulated and government-controlled form of capitalism that includes such things as tough environmental domination of the market.  I expect that it includes among other things some strict form of cap-and-trade regulations that seek to ration energy usage through pricing and other mechanisms.  I also believe it would include more intrusive restraints placed on corporate boards.  Sustainable capitalism can probably be summed up as government control of the economy in the name of radical environmentalism.

A better and more descriptive brand name for sustainable capitalism might be environmental socialism.

On to the next question.  What really sustains American Capitalism?  That’s easy.  American Capitalism requires such things as the Rule of Law, Contract Law in which courts enforce contracts, economic freedom to make business decisions that most cost-effectively utilize scarce economic resources, and private property (that’s not confiscated or controlled by burdensome taxes, excessive regulations, or inappropriate use of eminent domain).

Sustainable capitalism is supposed to enhance long term value creation.  Look at Europe.  Has it worked there?  True value creation and wealth creation, both in the short term and the long term, are the product of American Capitalism.

If you want to read more about the Architecture of American Capitalism and its superior effectiveness, I suggest you read my book, America’s Economic War.

Citizen Economics Blog – News, Analysis, Insight, Practical Knowledge by Gerard Francis Lameiro, Ph.D.  For more information, please visit: http://GerardLameiro.com .

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Posted in America's Economic War, American Capitalism, Architecture of American Capitalism, Economic Freedom, Environmental Socialism, Socialism, Welfare State Socialism | Comments closed

My New Blogging Plans

As you might have noticed, I took a break from blogging recently.  While these blog posts are relatively short, they still take time and I really needed some more time.

This month I have been working on my next book which is currently scheduled to be out in the fall.  If all goes well with the book, I hope to do another National Radio Tour after the book is published, with possibly some TV interviews thrown in as well.  By the way, the new book cover looks beautiful.  It’s bright, colorful, visually-stunning and optimistic (at least in my opinion).

I plan to continue blogging again right here on this website.  Plans include giving the blog a name:

Citizen Economics Blog – News, Analysis, Insight, Practical Knowledge

and a new schedule.  Instead of random postings done once or twice a week, I plan to write one blog post late Mondays on a current economics-related topic in the news with my analysis.  In addition, I plan to write a second blog post late Thursdays dealing with some insight and/or some practical knowledge from the field of economics.  Finally, I hope to have my blog carried on Amazon.com as a Kindle blog subscription sometime soon.

If you enjoyed my blog posts in the past, you should like my new format and consistent schedule.  You can look forward to reading about economic news and analysis, as well as getting practical knowledge and insights from the world of economics.  Of course, I plan to write about the vital importance of economic freedom to economic growth, peace and prosperity.

 

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Will We Be Hit with a Double Dip Recession?

This week an op-ed piece in The Wall Street Journal  discusses the real possibility that we might face a double dip recession.  While many optimists have been claiming that the recession is over and that the economy is looking up, the stock market has been taking investors for a wild ride.  Plus, over 17% of Americans are still unemployed or underemployed.  Is the economy on its way to a healthy recovery?  Or, are we headed instead for a double dip recession?  Let’s look at both sides of the argument now.

On the plus side, The Wall Street Journal this week also reports on declining mortgage rates that might fall to 4.5% this summer.  This is great for consumers that need a new mortgage or who might want to refinance their homes.  Interestingsly, this mortgage rate drop comes as a result of money from outside the U. S. that is seeking the safety of the U. S. economy.  So, money has been flowing into U. S. bonds.  While America has its own significant economic problems, we still look a whole lot safer than those European welfare state economies on the verge of potential or technical bankruptcy.

On the negative side, however, our current “quasi-recovery” has been marked by persistent and stubborn unemployment, at levels much higher than earlier in the decade.  Unemployment is still at 9.9% with the more inclusive U-6 metric at 17.1%.  U-6 includes unemployed worker, plus discouraged workers who have given up looking for a job, and also includes part-time workers who want full-time work but can’t find it.

In addition, there are other significant concerns that might be foreshadowing a double dip recession.  The knee-jerk reaction of Germany, banning naked short-selling on European government debt, derivatives, and other stocks, plus the reaction of Europe to the problems in Greece are not the kinds of pro-growth and pro-market policies that would likely lead to a better economic future for the European continent.  European countries seem to prefer their welfare state socialism and its discredited economic model of spend, tax and borrow, rather than putting themselves on a path to robust recovery.

The Wall Street Journal op-ed piece also points out three other factors that might help bring about a double dip recession.  These are a widespread deflationary trend among Western nations, a decline in American bank lending, and a decline in the velocity of money.

To illustrate the deflationary trend, consider the CPI (the core Consumer Price Index) in the U. S.  In April, it fell to its lowest level in 44 years!  In Ireland, their April CPI  fell 2.1% year-on-year.  In April, Spain saw their first core CPI deflation in the history of their CPI data series that dates back over 20 years.

While forecasting is always a difficult and tricky task, on balance it would seem to me that a double dip recession is a real possibility, that is, unless we see major changes in economic policies.  For now, anti-growth and anti-market policies seem to be in favor among government policy makers both in America and Europe.  Too bad for all of us!

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New Health Care Law – Costs are Going Up and Up and Up!

The ink is barely dry on the new health care law and the Washington Examiner reports on their website that cost estimates are increasing … and not just a little.  According to the article, the cost impact on Virginia will be $1.5B which is almost $400M more than the original cost estimate.  And, that’s just one State!  This added to the recent Congressional Budget Office’s report that there could be $115B more money needed to cover such things as Federal agency administrative costs and community health centers.  Does this surprise anyone?  Let’s talk more about the costs of the new health care law now.

Back in March, I predicted in my blog that the true costs of the health care bill might be 3x or 4x higher than the current estimates.  This was based on the fact that initial Medicaid cost projections were only about 25% of their actual costs.  Well, gradually as people are diving into the new health care law and analyzing its impacts, cost projections are skyrocketing.

Virginia’s higher cost projections, now up to $1.5B, and the CBO’s higher cost projections, suggesting another $115B might be needed to cover important expenses, are both just the tip of the iceberg.  In a recent editorial, The Washington Times suggests that another factor will also add to the costs of health care.  In their view, the elimination of pre-existing condition requirements means more uninsured people will wait until they are sick to pay for health care insurance.  How much will this factor cost?

Also, according to The Heritage Foundation, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS)  report that under the new health care law, costs will increase $311B.

It’s not surprising that a new government entitlement program will cost more than its original estimate.  But, this takeover of about 18% of the American Economy looks to be particularly expensive.  While some people seem to think that the health care law will cost $1 Trillion, I still believe $3 – $4 Trillion is a more realistic estimate.  Recall Cato Institute’s earlier cost estimate … more than $6 Trillion.

Regardless of how high the cost of the new health care law gets, guess who will ultimately pick up the tab?

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Posted in Health Care System | Comments closed

Taxes are Going Up – But Will Deficits and Debt Go Down?

Lots of people have been calling for new taxes and tax increases at the Federal, state and local levels.  We also know that Washington will allow the Bush tax cuts to expire soon.  So, taxes are going up.  No doubt about it.  But, as our taxes go up and up, will our deficits and debt decline?  A brand new article in The Wall Street Journal sheds some light on this important topic that impacts both jobs and economic growth.  Let’s talk more about it right now.

As first thought, it might seem to make sense that we need to increase taxes to cover Washington’s lavish spending spree.  Remember all those costly stimulus bills that failed to bring down unemployment substantially?  Unemployment is still around 9.9%.  It’s actually 17.1% if you count all those people who have given up looking, or all those people who have settled for part-time work because they couldn’t find full-time work.  Washington has spent lots of money following the discredited Keynesian policies of the past.

However, we now know that raising tax rates doesn’t necessarily raise tax revenues proportionately.  Why?  People look for tax loopholes, or they change behaviors, or they move to less taxing jurisdictions, or sometimes they simply cut back on working to avoid giving a larger share of their hard-earned income to the government.  It’s human nature to want to keep your own money.

According to a new article in The Wall Street Journal this week, there is a practical limit to tax revenues.  It’s about 18 to 19% of GDP.  From 1929 – 2009, tax revenues have never exceeded 19% of GDP.  What does that mean?

Even though tax rates are going up, tax revenues will hit a ceiling.  We can then expect our debts and deficits will continue to increase.  This means we can expect more and more unemployment, and less and less economic growth.

Increasing taxes, especially at this time, is simply the wrong fiscal policy to follow.

How do we get our deficits and debt under control?  The answer is also simple.  The government at all levels must CUT SPENDING and CUT TAX RATES.

By the way, cutting tax rates means more money for private sector investment in new businesses and new jobs.  It also means economic growth and increasing GDP.  That’s why government does better too!  When GDP goes up, 19% of GDP results in increased tax revenues for the government.

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Posted in Economy, Taxes | Comments closed