Is the House of Representatives in Chaos?

Is the House of Representatives in sheer chaos as some in the mainstream media claim?  Or, is the House in a powerful transformation?  Is this business as usual?  Or, is this part of the 2016 critical presidential election?  Is this simply a disagreement over tactics?  Or, is this part of the end of the Republican Party (as we know it) that I predicted months ago?  Let’s discuss these questions now …

Chaos or Transformation – What’s Going on in the House of Representatives?

The media calls it chaos.  I think they are wrong.  What we are seeing today is the transformation of the House leadership into a different style and a different model.

Voters in the Republican Party are frustrated and angry with the Republican Party because Republican members of the House and Senate have failed to adequately fight for the issues they want in Congress.  Also, they are upset because Obama’s radical, left-wing agenda has not been stopped.  ObamaCare has not been repealed.  The border has not been closed down.  Illegal immigration continues unabated.  Terrorists are at our doorsteps.  Spending is out of control.  The National Debt has gone through the roof and stands above $18 trillion with no end of deficit spending in sight.  Americans see politicians running our country recklessly down the road to economic bankruptcy.

In turn, House Republicans have gotten the message from angry voters.  Voters are demanding ACTION from Congress on the big issues of the day.

That’s why the Freedom Caucus (about 40 members) and possibly another 100 members allied with their thinking started to make serious demands on the House leadership.  That’s why John Boehner was forced to resign.  That’s why Kevin McCarthy gave up running for Speaker of the House.  That’s why Paul Ryan is looking less likely to run for Speaker or even take the job, if it were offered.

What was the Old Model of House Leadership?

The old model of House leadership was simple.  Don’t rock the boat.  Don’t confront the president too much.  Give the president what he wants.  The American people will then see the other party is to blame for the problems we face.  Then, we will win the White House back in 2016 and we will also keep the House and Senate.  With the Federal government finally under complete Republican control, we will then have the chance to fix the nation’s problems.

Part of the old model of House leadership was  a strong Speaker with power to punish members who didn’t follow the legislative priorities and decisions of the Speaker, the leadership, and the committee chairmen.  For example, the leadership didn’t like members making amendments to bills.  This has frustrated many House members.  Those members who tried to bypass the leadership were punished by losing committee assignments, etc.

What is the Emerging, New Model for the House Leadership?

Taking their cue from angry voters, House members want to confront Obama at every turn before January 20, 2017 when the new president is sworn into office.  Even if their legislation is vetoed by the president, they feel obligated to fight for the agenda of the voters who sent them to Congress.

Within the Republican conference, power would be less centralized.  Members can push for those legislative objectives they believe are in the best interest of voters, rather than sit back and wait for a presidential election victory in November 2016.

Who will Get Elected Speaker – Daniel Webster, Paul Ryan, Marsha Blackburn, Newt Gingrich or Someone Else?

One thing seems certain.  The next Speaker will have to agree ahead of time to the new model of House shared leadership.  The old authoritarian model is out.  Here are some possibilities:

1. Daniel Webster – Proven leadership skills in the Florida House as Speaker.  Changed their power model.  But, his House seat has just been gerrymandered from 4% Republican edge to an 18% Democratic edge.  Might not be reelected in 2016.

2.  Paul Ryan – Highly regarded Republican House leader, ran for VP.  He might have a future in the party, but becoming Speaker might be career-limiting.  Good chance he would take job, if there were no strings attached (liked shared leadership).  Probably won’t get the Speaker’s job.

3. Marsha Blackburn - From Tennessee, very conservative, good relations with moderate House members, anti-tax, Tea Party philosophy.  If elected Speaker, she would be the first woman to be selected for a top House or Senate leadership post ever.

4. Newt Gingrich - You don’t have to be a House member to become Speaker (Article 1, Section 2 of the Constitution).  Newt has on-the-job experience as Speaker.  He led the highly successful “Contract with America.”  Maybe, America needs a second Contract with America now.  He’s also a brilliant policy analyst with outstanding knowledge of how the Federal government works.  But, some conservatives think that he might have taken some liberal stands that bugged them in the past.  Plus, people want to move forward.  Is Newt’s time past?

For More Information

The 2016 presidential election looks to be the most exciting, the most surprising, and the most provocative presidential election since 1896.  In Dr. Lameiro’s new book on the 2016 presidential election, he dives into the why’s.  Plus, importantly, what’s likely to happen.  You will really want to be one of the first to read his new book on Tuesday, January 5th, 2016 when it is scheduled to launch.  Note to Talk Radio Hosts – Sandy Frazier will be conducting Dr. Lameiro’s National Book Tour in January 2016.

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Republican Polls are Changing – Can We Trust the Polls?

The race for the Republican presidential nomination is in a major state of flux.  Poll numbers are changing.  Political donors are changing who they support.  There are new concerns over the accuracy of the actual polling numbers, especially given the anti-party, anti-establishment, and anti-Washington frustration and anger of voters.  Even the Republican Congressional leadership is in a state of flux and upheaval.  What can we say about the current Republican presidential nomination race?  Will Trump walk away with the nomination?  Is he about to collapse in the polls to Ben Carson or Carly Fiorina?  Plus – can we even trust the polls?  It’s an exciting time.  Let’s discuss some of these issues now …

First Big Question – Where do the Polls Stand?

In the NBC/WSJ poll, in Iowa, Trump leads Carson 24 – 19.  In New Hampshire, Trump leads Fiorina 21 – 16. In the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average, Nationally Trump leads Carson 23 – 17.  But, in the latest IBD/TIPP poll released October 3rd, Nationally Carson has taken the lead over Trump 24 – 17. That’s a dramatic shift.

In last Friday’s Pew Research poll, Bush came in at only 4.  That’s a significant drop.

Second Big Question – What do these numbers mean?

Clearly, the dynamics of the Republican presidential nomination race is up in the air and changing.  It appears as if Trump has lost momentum and is dropping.  The RCP average moves slower that individual polls because it averages several polls over roughly the last two weeks.  The IBD/TIPP poll is the newest, as of Monday. October 5th.  Carson and Fiorina are waiting in the wings if Trump does stumble.  Cruz seems to have stable support in the 6 – 8 range.  Bush maybe losing support.

Third Big Question – What’s the significance of the Anti-Party, Anti-Establishment, Anti-Washington frustration and anger of voters?

Besides the obvious point that voters’ frustration and anger will impact election turnout and election results, it’s impacting the polls in ways researchers don’t fully understand.  As a result, the accuracy and reliability of polls should be questioned.  For example, some voters believe that polls are controlled by the establishment parties or the media.  Then, they choose not to respond to the polls or to give the wrong answers to fool the media. Obviously, this can really throw the numbers off.

Fourth Big Question – What are some important issues with the polls?

  1. Anti-Party, Anti-Establishment, Anti-Washington frustration and anger of voters polled - Ignore pollsters or give misleading responses
  2. Voters Won’t Answer their Phones – Voters giving up landlines and don’t answer on their mobile phones.  Hard to reach potential voters.  Hard to tell if they will actually vote.  Small response rates overall.
  3. Electorate is Changing Demographically – Pollsters unsure of underlying “Model” of electorate to use to extrapolate from polling data to actual results.
  4. Can Now Take 10 Times as Many Calls to Get Same Number of Interviews – Example – 15,000 calls to get 1,000 voters vs. before 1,500 calls to get 1,000 voters
  5. Item #4 above – Leads to need for more calls – Leads to higher polling costs – Leads to smaller sample sizes – Leads to less accurate and less reliable results
  6. Online Surveys Might Oversample Some Groups – Example – Young people
  7. Robocalls Can’t Legally Call Mobile Phones – Can’t handle all calls needed to be made
  8. Multi-Candidate Races are More Difficult to Get Accurate Polling Results – Two-person races are easier to get accurate results
  9. Margin of Error – Varies by poll – Helps to determine weight to be placed on the results
  10. Who is Included in the Polling Sample? – All Republicans, Republicans Likely to Vote in Primaries and Caucuses, Republicans who participated in 2012 primaries and caucuses, Independents?

New Book Coming!

Dr. Lameiro’s new book on the 2016 presidential election is scheduled to be released on Tuesday, January 5th, 2016.  Dr. Lameiro believes there will be some really big surprises with this presidential election.  You will definitely want to read this book as soon as it comes out.  Sandy Frazier is planning to conduct Dr. Lameiro’s National Book Tour in January.

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Republican Presidential Race is Heating Up – What’s Next?

The Republican Presidential Race is getting exciting!  Conventional wisdom has flown out the window.  The pundits, political consultants, and establishment experts continue to get it wrong.  They simply don’t understand the American people and how upset they are with the Republican Party.  By the way, they are also missing the fact that the American people are also upset with the Democratic Party as well.  Let’s talk about what’s happening this week and importantly, what’s next?

First, What are the Polls Telling Us?

Tier 1 Candidates. Since the second Republican Presidential Debate on CNN, the polls have tightened and four groups have emerged.  At the top, the Top Tier (or Tier 1) candidates are Donald Trump and Ben Carson.  What’s changed at the top is Trump has lost momentum and is no longer climbing rapidly.  He has leveled out, while Ben Carson has come up and essentially met Trump in the low 20% range.

In the latest NBC/WSJ national poll on Sunday 9/27, Trump has 21% to Carson’s 20%.  In the North Carolina Republican Presidential Primary poll by Elon University on Sat 9/26,  Trump was at 22% to Carson’s 21%.  Very close in both cases.  These polls are probably indicating a statistical dead heat.  Recall too Carson has huge favorability ratings which foreshadow potential upward polling pressure.

Tier 2 Candidates. In the polls, the Tier 2 candidates right now are the two candidates who both appeared very presidential in the CNN debate.  These candidates are Carly Fiorina and Marco Rubio who now garner about 11% of the vote in the NBC/WSJ poll.  If you recall, I had predicted the day after the second debate that both Carly Fiorina and Marco Rubio  would move up in the polls and they did.

Tier 3 Candidates. Tier 3 candidates are in the 6% – 8% range.  Tier 3 candidates seem to include Ted Cruz, Jeb Bush, and John Kasich.  Probably, the biggest surprise here is that Jeb Bush continues to look tired as he campaigns, continues to seem weak in his ability to articulate his positions,  and news reports indicate some donation bundlers are starting to abandon Bush and move to Rubio.  Obviously, the money follows the polling numbers.  If someone gets bad polling results, the money seems to move to the likely winners.  Incidentally, Bush is getting his family (41 and 43) to help raise money for his campaign.

Tier 4 Candidates. The Tier 4 candidates are all the candidates that are left and that are only getting polling numbers of 3% or less.  In the NBC/WSJ poll Sunday, here are the Tier 4 candidates: Chris Christie – 3%; Rand Paul – 3%; Mike Huckabee – 2%; Rick Santorum – 1%; Bobby Jindal – 1%; George Pataki – 0%, Lindsey Graham – 0%.  It would not be surprising if 3 or 4 of the Tier 4 candidates drop out before the next debate hosted by NBC in Boulder, Colorado, on October 28, 2015.

Second, What Conclusions Can We Make and What’s Next?

1.  Trump is losing ground, but is putting up a strong fight.  His tax plan is note worthy.  His communications skills are convincing.  His Political IN-Correctness is a real plus with the electorate that is fed up with political correctness.  But, it also bothers people a lot that his demeanor is not presidential.  It remains to be seen, if the electorate will accept Trump because of his bravado, or reject him for the exact same reason.

2.  Ben Carson is looking solid, thoughtful, presidential, a man of resolute character.  Think of his recent comments.

3.  Carly Fiorina and Marco Rubio both seem presidential.  Carly probably needs to show more of a human quality.  Marco seems to be a natural leader with no effort.  Expect both to continue to climb  in the polls.

4.  Tier 3 candidates (Bush, Cruz, Kasich) need to move up soon or they will be considered out of the main race.  Note that Bush and Cruz have well-funded Super-PACs that might help.  But, Super-PACs can’t coordinate with campaigns.  Bush, Cruz and Kasich will still need to raise funds to pay for their campaign operating costs.

5.  In Tier 4, there are 7 candidates with 3% or less of the votes in the latest NBC/WSJ poll.  It would not be surprising to see that half of these candidates will be gone by Tuesday, November 8th, 2015 (exactly one year before the election on Tuesday, November 8th, 2016).  Unless they make substantial progress soon, all of them might be gone by Tuesday, January 5th, 2016.


For More Information

My new book on the 2016 presidential election is due out on Tuesday, January 5th, 2016.  My new book makes some surprising predictions about what’s about to happen.  So far, my predictions this year seem to be coming true.  We’re in for an incredible presidential election.  Stay tuned.

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Letter to Pope Francis: World Needs Freedom to End Poverty

This is my open letter to Pope Francis that is being published the week of his visit to America.  I share it to shed light on the causes and cures of world poverty.

Your Holiness, Pope Francis:

Welcome to America!

I share your deeply-held concern for the poor of the world.  My concern for global poverty and destitution was so great that I left a good job in the world of high tech and decided to write books.  I also started Lameiro Economics LLC, a company focused on bringing practical economic knowledge about freedom, economic growth, and prosperity to America and to the world.  It has also fueled in part my interest in presidential campaigns and the presidency.

To begin with, I want to say we both want to help all people, especially those who can’t help themselves or who were born into adverse situations.  I think we both agree that we have a moral obligation to help the poor and destitute.

Of course, the obvious question Catholics, Christians, and the other citizens of the world face is precisely how to tackle the formidable problem of poverty.  I have studied that problem over the last 55 years of my life, since I visited Rio de Janeiro in 1960, lived there, and personally fed poor people in the streets.  That experience in Rio triggered my compassion and passion to help the poor.  You can’t help but be moved by seeing true poverty up close and personally.

Over the years and while working in my career, I have looked at global poverty from my many different points of view.  Without a doubt, my study and experience leads me to conclude unequivocally that the only way to prosperity for the world is through freedom … religious freedom, political freedom, and economic freedom.  Freedom is absolutely essential to alleviating the poverty of the world.

In my book, Renewing America and Its Heritage of Freedom, I make the moral case for freedom.  I truly believe that God is the Author of our liberty.

In my theoretical and empirical studies, I have learned that freedom is best implemented through free enterprise within nations and through free trade among nations.  I might add there is good evidence that free trade also leads to the lessening of tensions among nations and works as a solid and practical barrier to wars.  Free trade leads to peace.

Unfortunately, another philosophy called socialism (or Marxism) has labeled free enterprise as “capitalism,” an intentionally negative term that has stuck with economic freedom for many years.  This term seems to imply free enterprise is all about “capital” or money and greed.  It’s not.  It’s about freedom instead.  In stark contrast to economic freedom and free enterprise, socialism is a practical failure wherever it’s tried.  I have found that socialism always leads to moral and economic bankruptcy.

Let me share a few examples and reasons why economic freedom and free enterprise (or capitalism) is better for the world’s poor.  It’s also far superior to socialism, Marxism, communism, and other forms of Statism or totalitarianism.

  1. 25 years ago (1990) about 50% of people in developing areas around the world lived on $1.25 per day or less.  According to one report, 20 years later (2010), this number dropped to only about 22%.  Translated into practical impact on people, these numbers mean that approximately 700 million fewer people were living in extreme poverty around the worldThe reason for this dramatic positive impact is simple.  It can be traced back to capitalism and free trade. [For more information, please see Stephanie Slade, "If Pope Francis Wants to Help the Poor, He Should Embrace Capitalism," Hit & Run Blog,, September 21, 2015.]
  2. In America, economic freedom works to lift the entire economy.  According to Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute, from the year 1000 to 1820, World per capita GDP went up 47%.  However, from 1820 to 1998, in the United States, real per capita GDP rose 22 times.  2200% is an incredible number.  From 1850 until 2010, our life expectancy rose from 38 years to 78 years.  [For more information, please see Arthur C. Brooks, "Chapter 4: A System for Good Samaritans," The Road to Freedom (New York, NY: Basic Books, The American Enterprise Institute, 2012).]  In about 200 years, economic freedom made America the richest, most prosperous, and most generous nation on the face of the earth.
  3. Michael Novak points out The Universal Hunger for Liberty in his book by that name.  The same freedom that made America prosperous can help nations all over the world.  Extreme poverty can end, if the world chooses freedom.  [For more information: Michael Novak, The Universal Hunger for Liberty (New York, NY: Basic Books, 2004).]
  4. Economic freedom includes freedom to develop the world’s energy resources.  The poor need energy to lift themselves out of poverty.  Climate change socialists will hurt the poor by limiting fossil fuels that the global poor desperately need to get out of poverty.  Economic development requires energy.
  5. The idea that climate change is a planet-threatening crisis is not based on science as thousands of scientists have indicated.  A so-called climate change crisis is no more accurate than were the previous so-called global cooling crisis or the so-called global warming crisis.
  6. Because freedom has built-up America’s economy, America has been able to take in 32 million immigrants in the last 30 years.  Also, it might surprise some that of all worldwide migrants, 20% have come to America.  Today, over 13% of the population in the U. S. consists of immigrants. That means there are over 42 million immigrants in America.  [For more information, please see article by: Katie McHugh, "Ted Kennedy's Real Legacy: 50 Years of Mass Immigration,", March 30, 2015.  Also, please see: Mark Antonio Wright, "U.S. Immigrant Population Hits Record High of 42.4 Million,", September 22, 2015.]
  7. America continues to do far more than its share to help the poor of the world.  According to a Wall Street Journal editorial, the U. S. government’s annual aid to developing countries is $31 billion.  In addition, Americans give $39 billion more in private aid.  On top of that, America provides another $108 billion through private capital flows that impact economies. ["The Politics of Pope Francis," The Wall Street Journal, September 21, 2015.]

I hope you will agree that all of us need to work together to promote, protect and defend religious freedom, political freedom and economic freedom.  The world needs freedom to end poverty.

I hope you enjoy your trip to America.


Gerard Francis Lameiro, Ph.D.

Author, Philosopher, Economist, Engineer

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Posted in Climate Change, Economic Freedom, Economic Growth, Freedom, Immigration, Market Capitalism, Poverty, Prosperity, Redistribution of Wealth | Comments closed

How Will the Republican Debate Impact the Polls Next Week?

Americans got to see glimpses of 15 Republican presidential candidates in this week’s Republican Presidential Debate at the Reagan Library.  It was a marathon of nearly five hours of questions and answers (3 and 1/4 hours for the main debate and 1 and 1/2 hours for the runner up debate).  What are some overall impressions of the debate, the format, and importantly, the impact on polls moving forward?

What are Some Overall Impressions of the Debate?

The debate format was clumsy and contrived.  Jake Tapper seemed to ask most questions and spent much of his time cutting off presidential candidates with the words: “Thank you, Governor” or “Thank you, Senator.”  Bringing up big national issues and giving candidates 1 minute or 30 seconds to respond seems very limiting.

Also, why didn’t Jake Tapper, Dana Bash, and Hugh Hewitt share the role of asking questions?

Another problem with the format was the fact that the questions were framed with words like:

  • “Candidate A - Is Candidate B wrong on this issue?”
  • “Candidate A – Is what Candidate B says a surrender by Republicans?”
  • “Candidate A – You said this about the issue.  Candidate B said something else.  Tell Candidate B why they are wrong

What might be a Better Debate Format?

My suggestion is simple.  It also offers more substance to the policy issues that the debate covers.  Plus, it gives the American electorate a more in-depth understanding of the leading presidential candidates.  Here’s how my suggestion would work:

  1. Before a debate, average 10 national polls and select only the Top 4 candidates by highest average polling results.
  2. Hold two debates for one hour each, back-to-back.
  3. Debate #1 (Hour #1) – Top 2 candidates in the polls debate each other (Lincoln-Douglas Style) with no moderator at all except for introductions.  First half hour on Foreign Policy issues.  Second half hour on Economic/Domestic issues.
  4. Debate #2 (Hour #2) – Candidates who are third and fourth place in the polls debate each other.  Same Lincoln-Douglas Style debate format as above.

There is no need to hear from every candidate that has only 1%, 2%, 3% or even 5%, 6%, 7% in the polls.

How will the Republican Presidential Debate Impact the Polls Next Week?

First, how did the individual candidates do?  I will just mention some candidates here that stand out in some manner:

  • Donald Trump – Didn’t hit a home run.  Didn’t strike out.  Could present detailed policy solutions.  Polls will probably stay within +/- 5% of current polls.
  • Carly Fiorina – Sounded presidential in some ways.  But, lacked a certain degree of enthusiasm and energy.  Could present a more optimistic vision.  Poll numbers will probably go up. +5 to +8%.
  • Ben Carson - Thoughtful and cerebral candidate with strong character.  Didn’t show the enthusiasm and energy of a leader.  Not particularly presidential.  His answer on minimum wages shows a lack of economic knowledge and political savvy.  I think he was hurt by this debate overall.  Carson polls will probably go from 20’s down to about 15%.
  • Marco Rubio - Showed signs of presidential leadership, especially in foreign policy.  Polls will probably go up by 2% – 4%.
  • Ted Cruz – Not much air time.  In-depth answers.  Polls will probably go up 2% – 4%.
  • Chris Christie – Showed some presidential leadership and energy.  Probably NLCIP.  (Pronounced NULL-SIP,  means “No Large Change in Polls.”)

All the others candidates are probably NLCIP too.

For More Information

Please read my weekly  blog posts on the 2016 presidential elections.  Also, scheduled to come out on Tuesday, January 5th, 2016, my new book on the critical presidential election of 2016, and how the political parties will change, and a whole lot more.

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Will there be Fireworks in the Republican Debate?

The next Republican presidential debate is fast-approaching.  It’s Wednesday, September 16th, at 8 pm ET (7 pm CT / 6pm MT / 5 pm PT / 4pm Alaska Time) .  It will originate from the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, CA and will be broadcast on CNN with Jake Tapper moderating.  It will feature front-runner Donald Trump, along with Ben Carson, Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, Scott Walker, Carly Fiorina, Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee, and Rand Paul.  It will be preceded by the “Runner Up (in the Polls) Debate” two hours earlier with Rick Santorum, Lindsey Graham, Bobby Jindal, and George Pataki. Rick Perry has suspended his campaign and presumably will not attend the Runner Up Debate.

Will there be Fireworks in the Republican Debate?

Yes, expect fireworks!  Donald Trump is the clear front-runner.  In the newest ABC/Washington Post poll, Trump has 33%, Ben Carson has 20%, and the rest of the field trail these two leading candidates in the single digits.  In a two-race between Trump and Clinton, the ABC/Washington Post poll gives Hillary Clinton the edge by 46 – 43.  But, with a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.5%, this makes it a virtual tie.

Because Trump is leading the Republican nomination race and because many candidates are stuck in the single digits, we can expect big fireworks.  This might be some candidates’ last chance to break out of their low polling numbers.

What’s Happening to the Candidates with Lower Polling Results?

It’s getting tougher and tougher to raise money for campaigns when the candidates have lower polling numbers.  Take two examples.  According to reports, Rick Perry recently suspended his presidential campaign and Scott Walker has scaled back his campaign to focus primarily on Iowa and South Carolina.  Those are potential signs of money problems that are probably due to low polling numbers.

What Will Candidates Do During the Debate?

Expect candidates to argue vigorously against Trump.  Expect some candidates to pick fights with Trump.  Expect candidates to:

  • Attempt to differentiate themselves from Trump in terms of policy or style and demeanor
  • Attempt to argue that Trump is not a conservative (and bring up old policy positions)
  • Attempt to argue that Trump is not well-informed or well-versed on the issues
  • Attempt to argue that Trump doesn’t know how to run a serious campaign
  • Attempt to argue that Trump will ultimately turn-off more voters than he wins over, and will lose the election, if nominated

What Topic is Almost a Guarantee to come up in the Debate?

Expect that the Club for Growth’s email letter will come up during the debate.  Last weekend, the Club for Growth (a group that seeks prosperity and opportunity through economic freedom) issued a scathing attack on Trump. According to the Club for Growth: “The Club believes that Donald is the worst Republican candidate on economic issues – plain and simple.”

How will Trump respond to these Attacks?

Expect Trump to fight back hard.

What about Post-Debate Analysis?

Please check back on Thursday, September 17th for my post-debate analysis.  Who won?  Who lost?  Will Trump maintain his lead?  Will someone new move up into contention?  What will the polls look like in a week?

Special Note to Talk Radio Show Hosts and Producers

If you would like me to do both pre-debate and post-debate interviews, please contact Sandy and schedule both at the same time.  It will make things run smoother.

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Will Bush and Clinton’s New Strategies Work?

Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton were both foregone conclusions in the their respective races for Republican and Democratic presidential nominations in the minds of the experts.  Both have dropped dramatically in the major polls in recent weeks.  Bush currently trails Donald Trump and Ben Carson, while Hillary is fighting back the unexpected popularity of Bernie Sanders and the potential entrance of VP Joe Biden into the race.  What’s next?  After Labor Day, both Bush and Clinton hope to shake off their opponents respective surges with “new” strategies.  What are these “new” strategies?  More importantly, do these strategies have a chance of working?  Let’s talk about it right now …

What is Jeb Bush’s “New” Strategy?

I call Bush’s new strategy the “Fight Back with Open Arms Strategy.” Bush apparently plans to continue being a “nice guy” with open arms for illegal immigrants and others.  He hopes to bring a positive message to the presidential campaign.  At the same time, he apparently plans to call out Trump for any statements he believes are over-the-top.  He doesn’t seem to agree with Trump that he is a low energy candidate, citing the fact that in small campaign group appearances he relates very well with potential voters.

Also, Bush’s Super PAC is thought to be planning big ad buys on TV totaling about $22 million in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.  Just as Mitt Romney spent money on TV ads that might have been the primary reason Newt Gingrich dropped in the 2012 polls for the Republican presidential nomination, Jeb Bush supporters might hope negative ads (claiming Trump is no conservative)  might hit Trump hard in the polls.

What is Hillary Clinton’s “New” Strategy?

This week The New York Times suggested Hillary will be taking a new approach to campaigning.  I call her new strategy the “Show Some Heart and Mix in Some Humor Strategy.”

Hillary suffers from declining favorability numbers in part because of her keeping government emails on a personal (non-government server).  In addition, quite a few potential voters think she is distrustful and deceitful and lacks warmth and personality.  Hillary’s strategy is to offset those negatives by showing some heart and some humor in her appearances.  She plans on appearances on The Ellen DeGeneres Show and The Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon.  The hope by her campaign apparently is to “humanize” Hillary.

Interestingly, Hillary has asked supporters at a Cleveland Ohio event to sign a Loyalty Pledge before gaining admittance to the event according to NewsMax.

What’s the Latest in the Polls?

Of significant interest, Carson appears to be maintaining second place to Trump.  The Trump bubble (if it is a bubble) has yet to break.  The recent Monmouth University poll reporting a tie between Trump and Carson might have been an outlier.

Also, among millennials (ages 18 – 34), Trump has a 3 to 1 advantage over Jeb Bush according to Zogby Analytics.

Finally, in a recent SurveyUSA poll, Trump beat Hillary 45 to 40 percent.  Trump also beat Bernie Sanders 44 to 40 percent and Joe Biden 44 to 42 percent.  Trump appears to be beating all potential Democratic candidates.  That’s a dramatic shift from the August 19th CNN/ORC poll in which Hillary was ahead of Trump by 6 percentage points, 51 to 45 percent.

For More Information

For more information on the 2016 presidential election, please look for Dr. Lameiro’s new book on the historic 2016 presidential election scheduled to be out in early January 2016.

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Is Trump’s Bubble about to Burst?

In a very surprising poll announced on Monday, the Monmouth University poll reports that Donald Trump and Ben Carson are tied in first place at 23% each in the poll of likely Republican caucus attendees.  In the Des Moines Register / Bloomberg Politics poll released one day earlier, Trump also came in at 23%, but Ben Carson came in at 18%.  It appears from the Monmouth University polling data, Ben Carson might actually have greater momentum propelling himself forward to the top of the Republican party nomination than Donald Trump who has been doing quite well in recent weeks.  Let’s look at where things stand at the beginning of September 2015 about a year before the 2016 presidential election.

Is Trump’s Bubble about to Burst?

There is no question that Trump skyrocketed to the top of the Republican presidential nomination polls in the early nominating States and in national polls since the Republican debates on Fox News.  The questions people have been asking are: Will Trump stay on top and become the Republican presidential nominee?  Or, if he doesn’t get nominated: Will Trump bolt from the Republican Party and run as a third party candidate further confusing this election?

Up until the end of last week, Trump’s lead was decisive and growing across the board.  But, with Monday’s Monmouth University poll, we might be seeing a momentum shift as well as the first sign of Trump’s bubble bursting.  We will be watching closely to see if the Monmouth University poll is a statistical fluke, or a result limited to one early caucus State (Iowa), or the sign of a major shift away from the real estate billionaire, Donald Trump.

What’s Behind the Numbers?

Of great importance are the  little mentioned “numbers behind the numbers.”  In the Monmouth University poll, Ben Carson has a staggering 81% favorable rating and only a paltry 6% unfavorable rating.  Compare these numbers to Trump.  Trump’s favorable rating is 52% and unfavorable rating is 33%.  Ben Carson trumps Trump is the realm of favorability.  That probably bodes well for Ben Carson’s future polling numbers.

Another number to consider is the margin of error.  Both the Monmouth University and the De Moines Register / Bloomberg Politics polls have +/- 4.9% margins of errors.  This large of a margin of error means the numbers could be off.  So, we need to wait to see if these results are confirmed with other polls.

What about the Other 15 Republican Presidential Candidates?

In the Monmouth University poll, Ben Carson and Donald Trump have 23% each.  Guess what?  All the other candidates are in the single digits, except for Carly Fiorina with 10%.

In the Des Moines Register / Bloomberg Politics poll, Donald Trump has 23%, Ben Carson has 18%, and all the rest are in the single digits.

How’s the Money Leader, Jeb Bush, Doing in the Polls?

In these Iowa polls, Jeb Bush only has 5% (Monmouth University) and only has 6% (Des Moines Register / Bloomberg Politics)  respectively.  Possibly, of great significance to Jeb Bush is the fact that three of his top fundraisers have left the campaign (although they did stay on with his Super PAC).  The question that comes up is:  Does the Jeb Bush campaign have trouble raising money given his polling numbers?

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What’s Happened to the Stock Market?

It’s been quite a downhill ride on Wall Street recently.  Last Friday, the Dow industrials fell 530 points and lost 3.1% of its total value.  Monday was even worse.  The Dow industrials followed that slide with an even bigger decline, losing 588 points or 3.6% of its total value.  What caused these huge declines?  Was it China and its currency devaluation?  What is the Federal Reserve and their hinting at raising interest rates?  Was it falling oil prices?  Or, possibly worry over the Iran nuclear deal and potential war in the Middle East?  Let’s talk now about what’s going on in the stock market …

What’s going on with China?

For starters, China devalued its currency recently.  By itself, that move should not cause a stock market crash.  But, for some investors, the devaluation signaled that China’s economic growth and economy might be slowing down.  Because China has such a large impact on the global economy, this action spurred fears that the entire global economy might get hit and there might be a global economic slowdown.  The Shanghai Composite in China fell 8.5% on Monday, a negative sign.  That adds to concerns for investors.

How does currency devaluation impact other markets around the world?  When China has to pay more for goods and services, it has to cut back on goods and services.  There is less money in people’s pockets, so-to-speak.  If China overall buys less actual goods and services, trade revenues to other countries will decline.  Thereby, impacting the global economy.

One other cause for concern relative to China were reports that the Chinese central bank planned to “flood” their economy with liquidity, hoping to spur investment in China’s private sector economy.  Recall that State-owned industries are already heavily invested in with cheap money (yuan).  The private sector typically pays more for its investment capital.

One other issue for the Chinese.  China has a State-owned company whose objective is to bolster stock market prices.  From an economic point of view, that’s not a good idea.  It works against the positive effects of a free market.  China announced that this State-owned company would not purchase stocks every day.  Note that in the attempt to control prices, China might have to purchase controlling interests in all or most of some companies or entire industries.  The results, of course, are communism and State-controlled production.  That approach won’t work as we know from either economic theory or from actual practical examples.

What about Europe?  What about Greece?  What about Russia?  What about Oil Prices?

In Europe, the pan European Stoxx Europe 600 dropped 5.3% and Germany’s DAX dropped 4.7%.  So, the widespread nature of the decline in stocks globally certainly added to investor nervousness.  Greece has received some attention in the last few months as they wrestle with their fiscal problems.  But, it is unlikely that Greece was the main trigger for the Dow sell-off on Friday and Monday.

Russia is a special case.  The Russian economy is heavily dependent on the price of oil.  Low oil prices tends to hurt Russia’s economy badly.

What about the Federal Reserve?

As I have pointed out many times, Qualitative Easing (QE) was an unproven attempt to regulate the economy.  In the long run, I think it will be hard to unwind QE1, QE2 and QE3 and they might cause inflation and asset bubbles.  Some probably would call the stock market leading up to the recent declines an asset bubble.  The problem with asset bubbles is that they can break, and hurt investors.  Recall the housing bubble of a few years back.

Instead of the QE strategy, the Federal Reserve needs to use a rule-based strategy to manage the money supply and inflation.

What about Stock Fundamentals?  What about the Economy?  What about How Citizens Feel about America under the Current Administration?

Some investors believe stocks have been significantly overvalued.  This could in part be caused by the QE policies of the Federal Reserve or from the state of the economy in general.  The stock market has been one place you could invest money in recent years and get a return on that investment.  The current sharp declines might be a true correction to an overvalued stock market.

Of course, I have been saying for a long time that this economy is not doing that well.  It’s a very anemic economy and it’s a very lackluster recovery in contrast to normal recoveries.  Investors might finally be starting to look at the economic numbers in detail and not just listening to the upbeat mainstream media who are trying to pump up the economy and downplay the obvious problems, like nearly 94 million American of working age who are not working.

Americans are coming to realize that America has serious problems.  In a recent poll, about 2/3 of Americans believe the nation is on the wrong track.  They might be re-evaluating the economy, their personal budgets, and the stock market.

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Should Democratic Dinosaurs Lead America into the Future?

It’s really ironic and a sad commentary on the Democratic Party that three of their leading contenders for president are political dinosaurs from the past.  Consider these potential presidential nominees …

Bernie Sanders - a self-identified 73 year old socialist.  Socialism and Marxism trace their discredited philosophy largely back to a 19th century book (Karl Marx, The Communist Manifesto, 1848).

Hillary Clinton - a self-identified 67 year old progressive. Progressive socialism dates back largely to the early 20th century progressives such as Woodrow Wilson.

Joe Biden – a 72 year old progressive. Current vice president and associated with the current administration’s 21st century versions of outdated progressive socialist policies and programs, including ObamaCare, open borders, illegal immigration, and the bad Iran nuclear deal.

Is it time for the Democratic Party to find some new people to lead America into the future?

Will the Democratic Party as we know it end in 2016?

Is it time to move America forward with policies that are based on Freedom, the Constitution, and the Rule of Law?

America needs to develop policies that will assure peace and our national security, as well as prosperity for all and economic growth.

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For more information on the 2016 presidential election, please look for Dr. Lameiro’s new book on the historic 2016 presidential election scheduled to be out in early January 2016.

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