Is Trump’s Bubble about to Burst?

In a very surprising poll announced on Monday, the Monmouth University poll reports that Donald Trump and Ben Carson are tied in first place at 23% each in the poll of likely Republican caucus attendees.  In the Des Moines Register / Bloomberg Politics poll released one day earlier, Trump also came in at 23%, but Ben Carson came in at 18%.  It appears from the Monmouth University polling data, Ben Carson might actually have greater momentum propelling himself forward to the top of the Republican party nomination than Donald Trump who has been doing quite well in recent weeks.  Let’s look at where things stand at the beginning of September 2015 about a year before the 2016 presidential election.

Is Trump’s Bubble about to Burst?

There is no question that Trump skyrocketed to the top of the Republican presidential nomination polls in the early nominating States and in national polls since the Republican debates on Fox News.  The questions people have been asking are: Will Trump stay on top and become the Republican presidential nominee?  Or, if he doesn’t get nominated: Will Trump bolt from the Republican Party and run as a third party candidate further confusing this election?

Up until the end of last week, Trump’s lead was decisive and growing across the board.  But, with Monday’s Monmouth University poll, we might be seeing a momentum shift as well as the first sign of Trump’s bubble bursting.  We will be watching closely to see if the Monmouth University poll is a statistical fluke, or a result limited to one early caucus State (Iowa), or the sign of a major shift away from the real estate billionaire, Donald Trump.

What’s Behind the Numbers?

Of great importance are the  little mentioned “numbers behind the numbers.”  In the Monmouth University poll, Ben Carson has a staggering 81% favorable rating and only a paltry 6% unfavorable rating.  Compare these numbers to Trump.  Trump’s favorable rating is 52% and unfavorable rating is 33%.  Ben Carson trumps Trump is the realm of favorability.  That probably bodes well for Ben Carson’s future polling numbers.

Another number to consider is the margin of error.  Both the Monmouth University and the De Moines Register / Bloomberg Politics polls have +/- 4.9% margins of errors.  This large of a margin of error means the numbers could be off.  So, we need to wait to see if these results are confirmed with other polls.

What about the Other 15 Republican Presidential Candidates?

In the Monmouth University poll, Ben Carson and Donald Trump have 23% each.  Guess what?  All the other candidates are in the single digits, except for Carly Fiorina with 10%.

In the Des Moines Register / Bloomberg Politics poll, Donald Trump has 23%, Ben Carson has 18%, and all the rest are in the single digits.

How’s the Money Leader, Jeb Bush, Doing in the Polls?

In these Iowa polls, Jeb Bush only has 5% (Monmouth University) and only has 6% (Des Moines Register / Bloomberg Politics)  respectively.  Possibly, of great significance to Jeb Bush is the fact that three of his top fundraisers have left the campaign (although they did stay on with his Super PAC).  The question that comes up is:  Does the Jeb Bush campaign have trouble raising money given his polling numbers?

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