Jeb, Trump, and 18 More – What’s Next?

No one can say it’s a boring primary season for the 2016 presidential election.  With Jeb entering the race this week, and Trump probably entering with a $9 Billion net worth, will we see one of the most exciting and unusual nominating processes in history?  Will it be the most expensive too?  Let’s look at some interesting things we might just see …

Will the Crop of Republican Presidential Candidates have more than Enough Money?

Certainly, some of the candidates have lots of money.   Jeb Bush has been raising tens of millions of dollars through his Super PAC called Right to Rise.  We probably won’t know the exact amount until a Federal Election Commission filing on July 31st, but estimates range around $100 Million.  Donald Trump appears to have assets totally about $9 Billion making him the richest candidate to ever run for president.  Several of the other Republican candidates are thought to have raised tens of millions of dollars.

It is thought that to run a good primary campaign in 2016, a candidate will need to have raised at least $50 Million – $60 Million in 2015.  So, it’s unlikely that the entire field of up to 20 candidates will accomplish this task.

What’s the Chance of a Republican Presidential Candidate Running as an Independent, Third-Party Candidate?

There can only be one Republican presidential candidate and one Republican VP candidate, so that leaves around 18 disappointed other candidates.  Given all the money raised and apparently available (for example, Trump), there is a real chance we might have an independent, third-party candidate in 2016.

What are the Two Most Likely Outcomes, If an Independent Third-Party Candidate Runs?

If a strong, conservative candidate does not get the Republican presidential nomination, it is reasonably possible a stronger and more conservative third-party candidate will run and win the presidency.  The reason for this is obvious.  Many voters talk about wanting a more conservative candidate in 2016.  These voters believe  John McCain and Mitt Romney lost because they were not conservative enough.

When political parties continue to frustrate many of their rank-and-file members and don’t address the issues of concern in voters’ minds, critical elections take place, party memberships are re-aligned, and on-going economic and/or policy issues are finally resolved.  Sometimes, a new party and/or a new party name emerges.  2016 might be just such an election.

Of course, another possibility is for a third-party candidate to split the conservative vote between the Republican and Independent candidates.  In this case, both candidates would lose.

What Four Groups Do the Republican Presidential Candidates Fall Into Today?

For the last 60 years or so, Republicans could be divided into 2 major groups – Moderate Republicans and Conservative Republicans.  Moderates included: Prescott Bush, George H. W. Bush, George Romney, Mitt Romney, John McCain, etc.  Conservatives included: Barry Goldwater, Ronald Reagan, Jack Kemp, Sarah Palin, etc.

Today’s Republican presidential candidates can also be divided into moderate Republicans and conservative Republicans.  But, I think there is even a better way to divide up the 20 or so candidates.  Here are the four groups I would put them in:

  • Group 1 - Solid Conservative Presidential Contenders
  • Group 2 – Moderate Conservative Presidential Contenders
  • Group 3 – Likely VP Contenders
  • Group 4 – Likely Cabinet Secretary Contenders

Readers and listeners can put all the candidates into the groups that they think fit the candidates best.

For More Information

For more information on religious, political and economic freedom, as well as on the economic growth and prosperity that result from freedom, please visit my website: GerardLameiro.com .

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