What are 5 Scenarios for Trump in the Republican Presidential Race?

Americans are just now beginning to get over the shocks and surprises of the first Republican presidential debates (both the Top 10 Debate and the Runner-Up Debate).  A few polls are starting to come in.  TV viewers were stunned to see the Trump – Megyn Kelly encounter with a lot of animosity.  They were caught off guard with the Chris Christie – Rand Paul bickering and divisive feud.  Plus, many were pleasantly surprised by Ben Carson’s quiet and thoughtful debate performance and many thought Carly Fiorina’s grasp of the election’s significance and presidential demeanor were much better than expected.  After the debates, pols and pundits were making lots of different judgments and predictions.  Some saying Trump definitely lost and was finished.  Others believing he was as strong as ever.  Opinions were literally all over the political map.  Let’s stand back and try to assess what might happen to Trump in the future …

What are 5 Scenarios for Trump in the Republican Presidential Race?

1.  Trump continues to  lead the race and builds momentum.  Trump wins the Republican nomination and becomes president.

With an electorate that is angry, frustrated and upset with the current administration and the Republican Congress, an anti-Washington outrage might take over the Republican presidential race.  Giving Trump the Republican nomination sends a strong message to both parties that business-as-usual is over and Americans will hold both parties accountable for America going off track.  Many voters are truly upset that they gave the House and Senate to the Republican Party in recent elections and major issues are still not resolved.

ObamaCare has not been repealed.  Illegal immigration continues unabated.  Our military has been slashed, while we are being threatened with ISIS soldiers and the potential for terrorists attacks at home.  Our brave Marines are forced to seek rides from allies due to a lack of ships.  The Iran nuclear deal has further deteriorated our security and America is at risk of an Electro-Magnetic Pulse (EMP) attack that the current administration continues to ignore, preferring to fight climate change (a non-crisis).

Add to this a very anemic economy and over 93 million Americans of working age who are not working.

2.  Trump drops dramatically in the polls in 1 – 2 weeks after the first debate.  Trump exits the race.

In the second scenario, Republican voters think about the debate and come to the conclusion that Trump is a master marketer and popular reality TV star and knows how to grab headlines, but he is simply not presidential.  In this scenario, voters decide he lacks diplomacy, courtesy, and common sense.  Voters recognize that while Trump might shake up the establishment with his sharp rhetoric, they also need a president that can bring people together and forge solutions to major problems.  Attacking many Americans makes no sense for a president.  In this scenario, Trump drops precipitously in the polls and eventually bows out of the race and gets a new deal for another reality TV program.  He goes on to add another $2 billion to his net worth in the next four years.

3.  Trump gradually loses support and drops in the polls over a period of about 2 – 3 months as people come to understand his non-presidential style and questionable conservative positions.  Trump exists the Republican nomination race.

Over time, conservative Republican voters will question selecting a presidential nominee who lacks basic people skills and who lacks a proven and identifiable conservative track record.  Conservatives were upset that Mitt Romney in 2012 and John McCain in 2008 were not conservative enough.  Clearly, they want a conservative presidential candidate in 2016.  Trump has a record of supporting positions that are not conservative.  He has also made donations to Democrats.  Eventually, as we approach the primaries and caucuses, Republican voters will seriously consider each Republican candidate and evaluate them on their abilities and capabilities to be a great president.

4.  Same as Scenario #3 above, but Trump continues on as a Third-Party candidate.  Trump splits the Republican Party vote and the Democratic Party candidate becomes president.

This is the dream scenario for the Democratic Party.  Given all the problems facing America today, the Democratic Party might easily lose the election in a two-party race.  But, a third-party candidate might siphon off 5% or 10% of the vote from the Republican nominee and effectively give the election to the Democratic Party candidate.

Some people even believe that Trump is in the race for that very reason – cause chaos and confusion within the Republican Party and ultimately give the election to the other party.

5.  Same as Scenario #4 above, but Trump wins as a Third-Party candidate and becomes president.

As strange as this scenario seems, it’s still possible.  I have previously predicted the end of the Republican Party in 2016 as we know it today.  Republican voters are very frustrated and upset with their party.  If someone is nominated to be the Republican nominee, who is a not a rock solid conservative, who is thought to be another Romney or McCain, and who is thought to be another likely loser, any Third-Party candidate might win.

Trump or another Third-Party candidate might just surprise the Washington establishment.  Other potential Third-Party candidates might include libertarian Rand Paul or popular Ben Carson.

About Dr. Lameiro –

Gerard Francis Lameiro, Ph.D. is an Author, Philosopher, and Economist. Dr. Lameiro is a veteran of many election campaigns, including Ronald Reagan’s 1976 and 1980 presidential election campaigns. Dr. Lameiro was a Member of the 1980 Presidential Electoral College and personally cast one electoral vote for Ronald Reagan as the 40th President of the United States of America.


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