Will Bush and Clinton’s New Strategies Work?

Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton were both foregone conclusions in the their respective races for Republican and Democratic presidential nominations in the minds of the experts.  Both have dropped dramatically in the major polls in recent weeks.  Bush currently trails Donald Trump and Ben Carson, while Hillary is fighting back the unexpected popularity of Bernie Sanders and the potential entrance of VP Joe Biden into the race.  What’s next?  After Labor Day, both Bush and Clinton hope to shake off their opponents respective surges with “new” strategies.  What are these “new” strategies?  More importantly, do these strategies have a chance of working?  Let’s talk about it right now …

What is Jeb Bush’s “New” Strategy?

I call Bush’s new strategy the “Fight Back with Open Arms Strategy.” Bush apparently plans to continue being a “nice guy” with open arms for illegal immigrants and others.  He hopes to bring a positive message to the presidential campaign.  At the same time, he apparently plans to call out Trump for any statements he believes are over-the-top.  He doesn’t seem to agree with Trump that he is a low energy candidate, citing the fact that in small campaign group appearances he relates very well with potential voters.

Also, Bush’s Super PAC is thought to be planning big ad buys on TV totaling about $22 million in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.  Just as Mitt Romney spent money on TV ads that might have been the primary reason Newt Gingrich dropped in the 2012 polls for the Republican presidential nomination, Jeb Bush supporters might hope negative ads (claiming Trump is no conservative)  might hit Trump hard in the polls.

What is Hillary Clinton’s “New” Strategy?

This week The New York Times suggested Hillary will be taking a new approach to campaigning.  I call her new strategy the “Show Some Heart and Mix in Some Humor Strategy.”

Hillary suffers from declining favorability numbers in part because of her keeping government emails on a personal (non-government server).  In addition, quite a few potential voters think she is distrustful and deceitful and lacks warmth and personality.  Hillary’s strategy is to offset those negatives by showing some heart and some humor in her appearances.  She plans on appearances on The Ellen DeGeneres Show and The Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon.  The hope by her campaign apparently is to “humanize” Hillary.

Interestingly, Hillary has asked supporters at a Cleveland Ohio event to sign a Loyalty Pledge before gaining admittance to the event according to NewsMax.

What’s the Latest in the Polls?

Of significant interest, Carson appears to be maintaining second place to Trump.  The Trump bubble (if it is a bubble) has yet to break.  The recent Monmouth University poll reporting a tie between Trump and Carson might have been an outlier.

Also, among millennials (ages 18 – 34), Trump has a 3 to 1 advantage over Jeb Bush according to Zogby Analytics.

Finally, in a recent SurveyUSA poll, Trump beat Hillary 45 to 40 percent.  Trump also beat Bernie Sanders 44 to 40 percent and Joe Biden 44 to 42 percent.  Trump appears to be beating all potential Democratic candidates.  That’s a dramatic shift from the August 19th CNN/ORC poll in which Hillary was ahead of Trump by 6 percentage points, 51 to 45 percent.


For More Information

For more information on the 2016 presidential election, please look for Dr. Lameiro’s new book on the historic 2016 presidential election scheduled to be out in early January 2016.

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