Will It be a Bush-Clinton Race in 2016?

If you listen to many in the media, Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton are the presumed presidential nominees for the 2016 presidential race.  They are the so-called leaders – well funded, well connected, and well on their way to their presumed nominations.  But, is that really true?  Let’s stand back and take a closer look at the presidential campaign a year and a half before November 8th, 2016.

Do Frontrunners Always Get Nominated?

For starters, frontrunners don’t always get nominated.  Do you recall Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton in 2008?  Both were frontrunners; both weren’t nominated.  Or, consider the 1968 presidential nomination process.  Then, a former governor of Michigan named George Romney (father of Mitt Romney) was the clear frontrunner for the Republican Party nomination.  Ultimately, he lost to former Vice President Richard Nixon.

So, frontrunner status does not guarantee a nomination.

Do the Frontrunners Align with the Fundamentals of the 2016 Election?

There’s another important factor at play in the nomination process.  Years ago, I wrote the Ten Laws for Winning Presidential Elections.  They are still true today.  One of the Ten Laws is the “Law of the Dominant Issue.”  The dominant issue deals directly with the fundamentals.  What’s happening in America?  What do American voters believe?  Is America on the right track?  What concerns most Americans?

Fundamentals are largely out of the control of candidates and their campaigns.  Even a sitting president generally can’t impact the fundamentals very much, if at all.  Yet, the fundamentals and the dominant issue will largely impact who will win the election.  A primary role of a presidential campaign is to educate voters on how their candidate addresses the fundamentals and the dominant issue of the particular election cycle.

If a presidential campaign does a good job of communicating with the American people, the candidate will get a long-run bump in the polls.  If not, the candidate might at best get a short-run bounce that will quickly disappear from polling data.

What are the Fundamentals Today?

Right now, the dominant issue for America deals with economic insecurity, followed closely by global insecurity in the form of illegal immigration and terrorist threats.  The question today is how well do Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton and their perceived policies relate to alleviating these issues in the minds of the voters.  A second important question is whether or not the fundamentals will change between now and November 8th, 2016.  For example, a major terror attack within the U. S. can dramatically change the dynamics of the nomination process and/or the actual election.

For More Information

For more information, you can go to my website GerardLameiro.com and read the actual Ten Laws for Winning Presidential Elections.

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